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Pre-Mortem Analysis

cognitive · easy · 30-60 minutes per session

What is Pre-Mortem Analysis?

Gary Klein's prospective hindsight technique: before starting a project, imagine it has already failed spectacularly, then generate all the reasons why. Research shows pre-mortems increase the ability to identify risks by 30% compared to standard planning. Counteracts overconfidence and groupthink.

Is there evidence for it?

EVIDENCEstrong

How do you do Pre-Mortem Analysis?

  1. 1.Gather your team (or do solo). State: 'It's 6 months from now. This project has failed completely. Why?'
  2. 2.Each person independently writes down every plausible reason for failure — no discussion yet (5-10 minutes)
  3. 3.Share all reasons. Don't debate or dismiss anything. Collect the complete list
  4. 4.Categorize risks by likelihood and severity. Identify the top 3-5 that are both likely and devastating
  5. 5.For each top risk, define a specific preventive action, assign an owner, and add it to the project plan

How long does it take?

30-60 minutes per session.

Is it hard to start?

easy.

Source: Gary Klein — 'Performing a Project Premortem,' Harvard Business Review (2007)
risk-management · planning · critical-thinking · project-management · teams
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