Inversion Mental Model (Pre-Mortem)

What is Inversion Mental Model (Pre-Mortem)?

Inversion, championed by Charlie Munger and traced to mathematician Carl Jacobi's maxim 'Invert, always invert,' is the practice of approaching problems backwards. Instead of asking 'How do I succeed?' you ask 'How could I fail?' then systematically avoid those paths. Gary Klein's 'pre-mortem' technique applies this to project planning. Research shows pre-mortems increase the ability to identify reasons for future outcomes by 30%.

Is there evidence for it?

How do you do Inversion Mental Model (Pre-Mortem)?

1. 1.Before starting any important project or decision, imagine it has already failed spectacularly
2. 2.Write down every specific reason it could have failed — be creative and honest, no reason is too unlikely
3. 3.Rank the failure modes by probability and severity
4. 4.For the top 3-5 failure modes, create a specific prevention plan or early warning signal
5. 5.Apply inversion to daily decisions too: 'What would make this meeting a waste of time?' then do the opposite

How long does it take?

15-20 min per decision or project.

Is it hard to start?

medium.

This is one entry from the library Shift matches against. It is general information, not advice about you, and nothing on this page came from anyone's conversation.